Failed AI Pilots vs. $500B Order Book: The Contradiction at the Heart of Nvidia

A $5.05 trillion contradiction lies at the heart of Nvidia. The company boasts a $500 billion order book, yet analysts are warning that “nearly all AI pilot programs in businesses fail.” This “boom or bust” paradox is the biggest debate on Wall Street.
The “boom” argument focuses on the order book. A half-trillion in orders, plus a $100 billion deal with OpenAI and $1 trillion in value gained in three months, is tangible evidence of a revolution. Partnerships with Uber, Nokia, and the US government confirm it.
In this view, the “failed pilots” are just the cost of innovation, and the massive orders show companies are willing to pay it.
The “bust” argument, supported by formal warnings from the IMF and Bank of England, claims the order book is the bubble. If the pilot programs are failing, who will place the next $500 billion in orders?
Skeptics argue the demand is speculative and the $100 billion OpenAI deal is “circular.” This contradiction—a massive backlog for a product whose implementation is reportedly failing—is unsustainable, posing a risk to global economic stability.